INDIANAPOLIS — Long-term care in the United States is approaching a breaking point, according to a newly released industry report — and the pressure is coming from every direction at once.
OneAmerica Financial’s “2026 Long-Term Care Market Outlook,” published Monday, paints a stark picture of an industry caught between rising demand, a shrinking workforce, and a family caregiver system being stretched to its limits. The report, an annual survey of trends shaping the long-term care sector, identifies three defining themes for the year ahead: the rise of preventive long-term care, a caregiving workforce in crisis, and mounting pressure on unpaid family caregivers.
A Country Doing the Math
More than 63 million Americans — roughly one in five — are currently providing care for a loved one, according to a 2025 survey from the National Alliance for Caregiving and AARP. That number has grown 45% in just ten years. Most of these caregivers have no formal medical training and are juggling care alongside careers and families of their own.
“What we’re seeing from this most recent report is a renewed focus on working together across all aspects of the LTC industry,” said Jeff Levin, vice president and Head of Care Solutions for OneAmerica Financial. “There is tremendous pressure on all aspects of long-term care but also tremendous opportunity for education, partnership, and innovation.”
The Workforce Gap
The supply of licensed caregivers is declining even as the population requiring care continues to grow. That mismatch is shrinking access to professional care — and pushing more of the burden onto untrained family members. The report warns that even well-funded families may struggle to find services, as the licensed workforce isn’t keeping pace with demographic demand.
That concern isn’t new to the industry. Nursing facility operators have been raising similar alarms for years, with Medicare Advantage burdens and rising patient acuity compounding the strain on an already stretched workforce.
Planning Younger
The report also notes a shift in how Americans think about long-term care planning. As adults in their 40s and 50s watch parents navigate LTC decisions, many are starting their own planning earlier — including exploring prevention strategies for conditions like Alzheimer’s and dementia that can require years of care. Science’s improving ability to detect and delay these conditions is driving interest in what the report calls “preventive long-term care.”
“There is tremendous pressure on all aspects of long-term care but also tremendous opportunity,” Levin added. The report envisions a path forward centered on what it calls “interconnected care” — a framework that requires coordination across families, insurers, care providers, employers, researchers, and government programs alike. No single sector, the report warns, can handle the strain alone.
OneAmerica Financial will host a webinar on March 19 to explore the findings further, featuring panelists from Amada Senior Care and Indiana University’s Center for Neurodegenerative Disorders, among others.
